VLCC Market Sees Divergent Trends in Speeds and Regional Supply

Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide’s recent Tanker Market Monitor indicates a notable divergence in VLCC sailing speeds, regional vessel supply, and freight earnings. The report highlights that in the Arabian Gulf, Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) in ballast are accelerating, while laden vessels are slowing. This trend has not yet resulted in a clear improvement in overall voyage turnaround times.

Simultaneously, the western VLCC ballast surplus has contracted, contrasting with an increase in ballast vessel numbers East of Suez. Despite the rising vessel availability in the East, Gulf VLCC earnings continue to be exceptionally high, with dirty-tanker freight significantly outperforming the clean market, according to the publication.

Speed Trends and Supply Indicators

In the Arabian Gulf, VLCC ballast speed reached 12.00 knots, marking a 2.5% increase from the prior week. Conversely, laden speed decreased by 5.5% to 11.52 knots, making ballast vessels 0.48 knots faster than loaded ships. The speed-implied supply indicator was 3.7% above its 90-day average, suggesting faster repositioning rather than an increase in available tonnage, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide reported.

While this acceleration may shorten ballast voyages, slower laden sailings, along with waiting times and cargo transfers, continue to affect vessel turnaround. The report noted no clear evidence yet of improved effective VLCC availability. Western VLCC availability tightened, with the ballast surplus down by 23.7%. However, the combined at-sea balance increased by 2.1% due to a larger eastern surplus. Freight performance showed a sharp split by vessel class, with all four assessed Suezmax routes experiencing weekly gains, while all five western Aframax routes declined.

Freight Earnings and Regional Supply Shifts

The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) increased by 32% to a Week 41 average of 7,625 points, significantly outpacing the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI), which rose 2% to 2,388 points. VLCC freight on the Arabian Gulf–China route (TD3C) also strengthened, averaging WS1,288, an increase of 12% from the previous week. By 14 October, the BDTI stood at 7,922 points, easing slightly from its 13 October peak of 7,999, which was the highest reading in the supplied 12-month series and nearly seven times its level a year earlier. This indicates that crude tanker freight remains at historically elevated levels, with little sign of a meaningful reversal, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide stated.

Regarding earnings, Gulf routes continued to command the highest rates in the crude basket. The MEG–Singapore (TD2) route was flat at $1,412,730/day, and MEG–China (TD3C) was at $1,356,523/day, down 2.8% on the week. These earnings for AG–China remained 86.0% above West Africa–China (TD15) and 124.8% above US Gulf–China (TD22). Across the month, Atlantic routes saw faster gains, with TD22 up 108.2% and TD15 up 65.3%, compared to 31.1% for TD3C.

West of Suez, ballast vessels decreased by 6% to an average of 56, reducing the ballast surplus by 24% to six vessels. East of Suez, ballast numbers increased by 4% to 192, outstripping the rise in laden vessels and lifting the regional surplus by 6% to 49. As of 14 October, western laden VLCCs outnumbered ballasters for the first time since mid-August, while eastern ballast numbers continued to climb. This suggests tighter vessel positioning in the Atlantic against a larger pool of ballast tonnage in the East, which has yet to alleviate high Gulf freight earnings.

Congestion and Bunker Market Watch

China’s VLCC waiting count averaged 12 vessels in Week 41, a 14% increase from the previous week, while vessels at port remained near seven. The combined average rose 7% to 19 vessels, with the increase primarily in the waiting queue. Congestion remained below the same week in 2025. By 14 October, the daily count had eased to nine waiting vessels, with eight at port, suggesting some moderation in the waiting queue, according to Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.

Marine fuel availability remains constrained across key bunkering hubs. In Singapore, recommended lead times for VLSFO and HSFO have extended to 11–18 days and 11–17 days, respectively. Fujairah has seen some improvement in VLSFO availability, but HSFO and LSMGO supplies remain limited. Port Suez is reporting critically low inventories across conventional bunker grades. These constraints add to voyage planning requirements, particularly for vessels operating between the Gulf, Red Sea, and Asian discharge ports. Renewed attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continue to complicate vessel deployment and loading arrangements, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide concluded.