Red Sea Shipping Capacity Doubles in Six Weeks as Carriers Accelerate Return

Container shipping capacity offered on services transiting the Red Sea has doubled in the last six weeks, as carriers accelerate their return to the region, according to analysis by Xeneta. The Xeneta Weekly Ocean Container Shipping Market Update, published by Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide on 17 October 2026, highlighted this significant development.

On 5 October 2026, weekly scheduled capacity crossing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, at the gateway to the Red Sea, stood at 448,273 TEU in at least one direction. While this represents 48% of the 930,679 TEU offered in August 2023, before vessels began diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, it marks a doubling of capacity since 27 August 2026.

Emily Stausbøll, Xeneta Senior Shipping Analyst, commented on the rapid increase, noting that only carriers could explain the changes in security assessments that underpin this accelerated return. She added that this development would release capacity back into the global fleet and likely have a profound impact on freight rates and services as 2027 approaches. The analyst suggested that October is a logical time for ramping up Red Sea rerouting, as volumes typically decrease following the peak season, allowing released capacity to be partially absorbed by current congestion in global ocean networks.

Global Freight Rate Dynamics

The Xeneta report also detailed movements in global freight rates. Spot rates from the Far East to the US have remained largely stable for the past month. However, with Golden Week concluded, downward pressure is anticipated to intensify. Carriers are reportedly blanking sailings, with 58,200 TEU removed from the Far East to US West Coast trade and 35,500 TEU from the Far East to US East Coast this week. Stausbøll indicated that this behaviour suggests carriers are protecting current rate levels rather than expecting further growth, particularly given that US trade spot rates are still up triple-digit percentages compared to pre-Hormuz crisis levels in February.

Conversely, spot rates on Far East to Europe trades have stabilised after a period of decline. Rates into North Europe edged up 2.5%, and into the Mediterranean, they increased by 3.2% from the previous week. This stabilisation is seen as a correction where supply and demand are rebalancing following prior rate reductions. The report noted that while US East Coast spot rates are more than three times those into North Europe, this wide spread is unlikely to be sustainable long-term. Future adjustments are expected to involve falling US rates and, to a lesser extent, strengthening European rates.

Market Average Spot Rates

As of 16 October 2026, market average spot rates, as reported by Xeneta, were:

• Far East to US West Coast: USD 8,296 per FEU (down 0.2% from the previous week)
• Far East to US East Coast: USD 11,495 per FEU (down 0.1%)
• Far East to North Europe: USD 3,568 per FEU (up 2.5%)
• Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4,165 per FEU (up 3.2%)
• North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2,946 per FEU (up 0.8%)

The return of capacity to the Red Sea is identified as a critical factor that shippers should consider, as it is expected to be a key driver for ocean container shipping markets in 2027.