Tanker Fleet Supply Rises Amid Accelerated Newbuilding Deliveries

Tanker fleet supply has shown considerable growth over the past two years, marked by an acceleration in newbuilding deliveries, according to shipbroker Xclusiv. This shift contrasts with a previously restrained supply environment that had supported the market earlier in the cycle.

Combined fleet capacity across main tanker segments has risen from approximately 677.8 million DWT at the end of 2023 to around 738.9 million DWT currently, representing an overall increase of approximately 9.0%. However, this expansion has not been uniform across all segments. Small tankers, MR2s, and Aframax/LR2s have recorded the most substantial capacity growth since the end of 2023, increasing by approximately 15.3%, 13.8%, and 14.3%, respectively. In contrast, VLCC/ULCC capacity expanded by about 4.2%, while Handy/MR1 growth remained similarly limited.

Delivery Surge and Orderbook Expansion

The pace of vessel additions has changed sharply. Deliveries across the tanker fleet totalled approximately 7.6 million DWT in 2024, rising to about 19.5 million DWT in 2025. During 2026 to date, around 32.6 million DWT has already entered the fleet, indicating the extent to which the newbuilding cycle has translated into physical supply.

MR2 and Aframax/LR2 deliveries have been particularly significant. The larger crude tanker segments are also experiencing a notable increase; for instance, VLCC/ULCC deliveries increased from one vessel in 2024 and six in 2025 to 31 vessels during 2026 so far. The delivery pipeline remains substantial beyond the current year, with the tanker orderbook expanding across almost every segment compared with the end of 2023.

The most pronounced exposure is now concentrated among larger crude carriers. The current Suezmax orderbook stands at approximately 29.6% of the existing fleet in DWT terms, while VLCC/ULCCs have climbed to around 32.5%. Aframax/LR2 and MR2 orderbooks are also significant at approximately 20.7% and 19.7%, respectively. This represents a different supply backdrop from a few years ago, particularly for VLCCs, where limited ordering had previously kept forward fleet growth exceptionally low.

Scheduled 2027 deliveries amount to approximately 50.7 million DWT, equivalent to almost 6.9% of the current tanker fleet. The delivery profile becomes heavier in 2028, with around 61.2 million DWT currently scheduled, and a further 67.5 million DWT in the 2029-and-beyond pipeline. This creates clear supply-side pressure, highlighting the importance of demand growth, slippage, and recycling in determining how much of this capacity ultimately translates into effective fleet expansion.

Ageing Fleet and Demand Forecasts

An important counterbalance to the growing supply is the age profile of the existing fleet. Around 19.8% of the current tanker fleet by vessel count is already over 20 years old, with almost half exceeding 15 years. The replacement requirement is particularly pronounced in the Handy/MR1 and Panamax/LR1 segments, where approximately 37.3% and 22.6% of vessels, respectively, are older than 20 years. Even within the larger crude tanker segments, nearly one-fifth of Aframax/LR2 and VLCC/ULCC vessels are above the 20-year threshold.

A heavier delivery programme could therefore coincide with increased recycling and replacement of ageing tonnage, rather than translating entirely into incremental effective supply. However, demand growth appears comparatively limited based on current forecasts. Total seaborne oil trade is projected at approximately 62.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2027, slightly below the 63.4 million bpd recorded in 2025. Crude oil trade is expected to increase marginally to around 40.7 million bpd, while oil products are anticipated to remain below 2025 levels. Consequently, simple volume growth may not be sufficient to absorb the incoming fleet.

Xclusiv concluded that the tanker market is entering a more supply-sensitive phase. The key question for 2027 and beyond will involve not only the number of vessel deliveries but also the effectiveness of ageing tonnage exiting the trading fleet, alongside the impact of geopolitical developments, trade dislocations, and evolving sourcing patterns on tonne-mile demand. With a significantly larger orderbook nearing delivery, vessel utilisation and trade distances will become increasingly important in determining whether headline fleet growth leads to genuine oversupply.