China's LNG Import Dynamics Shift Amid Geopolitical Influences

Global seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade registered a significant rebound in 2025, with shipment volumes increasing by 5.8% year-on-year to 431.9 million tonnes (t), as reported by shipbroker Banchero Costa, cited by Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide. However, global exports experienced a decline of 1.6% year-on-year in January-July 2026, reaching 241.8 million t, down from 245.9 million t in the same period of 2025.

During January-July 2026, the USA emerged as the largest LNG exporter, accounting for 30.6% of shipments, corresponding to 74.1 million t. This represented a 21.6% year-on-year increase from 60.9 million t in January-July 2025. Australia followed with 19.5% of the market share, shipping 47.2 million t, an increase of 2.0% year-on-year. South-East Asia contributed 9.7% of exports, with volumes rising 4.1% to 23.5 million t. Russia’s exports increased by 10.4% year-on-year to 18.9 million t, securing a 7.8% share.

In contrast, Qatar’s share dropped to 7.1%, with exports falling by 64.3% year-on-year to 17.2 million t in January-July 2026, from 48.2 million t a year earlier. This reduction was primarily attributed to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which halted the majority of Qatari shipments from March 2026 onwards.

Import Trends and Regional Shifts

The European Union remains the largest importer of LNG, holding a 24.2% share of global LNG imports. In January-July 2026, the EU imported 58.7 million t, a 4.6% year-on-year decrease from the 61.5 million t recorded in January-July 2025. Japan imported 37.3 million t in January-July 2026, a 2.6% decline, while South Korea saw a 4.0% decrease to 26.9 million t. India's imports marginally increased by 0.9% to 14.0 million t.

China's LNG imports decreased by 2.5% year-on-year to 35.3 million t in January-July 2026, from 36.2 million t in the corresponding period of 2025. This placed China behind Japan in import volumes for the period. Previously, in 2021, mainland China had briefly become the world's largest LNG importer. However, both China and Japan were surpassed by the European Union in 2022, as EU imports surged by 67.6% to 100.1 million t in response to the need to replace pipeline gas supplies from Russia.

In 2025, Chinese imports declined by 13.3% year-on-year to 68.2 million t, while EU imports rebounded by 25.8% to a record 104.5 million t. China maintained its position as the second-largest importer in 2025, ahead of Japan's 67.3 million t.

China's Shifting Supply Landscape

The sources for China's LNG imports have undergone a significant reconfiguration, largely driven by geopolitical factors, according to Banchero Costa. In January-July 2026, Australia remained China's top supplier, providing 12.6 million t, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year, and holding a 35.6% share of China's total imports.

Imports from ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Singapore) to China rose by 6.9% year-on-year to 7.1 million t, making ASEAN the second-largest source with a 20.0% share. Conversely, shipments from Qatar to China saw a substantial decline of 57.6% year-on-year, falling to 4.7 million t from 11.0 million t in January-July 2025, with Qatar's share dropping to 13.3%.

Volumes from Russia to China increased by 31.3% year-on-year to 4.3 million t in January-July 2026, raising Russia's share to 12.3%. Canada emerged as a new supplier, shipping 1.4 million t to China, representing a 4.0% share, compared to no cargoes in January-July 2025. Meanwhile, shipments from the USA to China decreased by 71.7% year-on-year to 0.1 million t, accounting for a mere 0.2% of China's total LNG imports for the period.