Caribbean Basin Oil Exports Rise 45% Year-on-Year

Caribbean Basin crude oil and heavy product exports have reportedly increased by 234 million barrels year-on-year, an additional 880,000 barrels per day (bpd), marking a 45% jump compared to 2025. This information was shared by Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, and reported by Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.

After adjusting for increased transhipment via the Bahamas, exports from the Caribbean Basin are estimated to have added 210 million new crude oil and heavy product barrels, equivalent to 790,000 bpd. This growth positions the Caribbean Basin as the area that has contributed the largest volume of new barrels to the dirty tanker market so far this year.

By contrast, while Red Sea area exports have risen by 1.9 million bpd year-to-date, this increase is attributed to the rerouting of existing Saudi barrels from the Persian Gulf, rather than new market barrels. Saudi Arabia's total exports have reportedly fallen by 1.7 million bpd this year.

Regional Export Shift

The increase in exports has elevated the Caribbean Basin to the eighth largest export area globally. This surpasses regions such as the Black Sea & Marmara Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea, which historically reported higher export volumes than the Caribbean Basin until recently. The Caribbean Basin's share of global exports has increased to 6.1% from 3.9% in 2025, as stated by Rasmussen.

Venezuelan exports have reportedly increased by 600,000 bpd year-to-date, with Guyanese exports rising by 200,000 bpd. Other countries in the region experienced smaller volume changes. The larger exports from Guyana have primarily benefited Suezmax tankers. In contrast, Aframaxes and LR2s have participated in the increased exports from Venezuela. Overall, Suezmaxes have transported 48% of the additional barrels from the Caribbean Basin, while LR2s and Aframaxes accounted for 29% and 14% respectively.

Tonne-Mile Demand and Future Outlook

Despite the 45% jump in exports, the overall tonne-mile increase has not matched this percentage. A significant portion of Venezuela’s increased volumes has been directed to the US and India, while volumes to China have decreased. Consequently, the average sailing distance for Caribbean Basin exports has reportedly fallen by nearly 10%, yet tonne-mile demand has still risen by 31% year-on-year.

Looking forward, Caribbean Basin exports are anticipated to experience continued growth. Venezuela, possessing over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, could become a major supplier if planned investments and production expansions materialise. Guyana's production expansion is already scheduled, and the International Energy Agency projects the country's exports could increase by an additional 210,000 bpd in 2027, according to Rasmussen.