Oakland Institute Challenges Dominant View on Critical Mineral Demand

An analysis by the Oakland Institute challenges the assertion that a substantial increase in mining is an unavoidable consequence of replacing fossil fuels. Utilising data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the Oakland Institute determined that wind, solar, renewable power networks, grid batteries, and electric vehicles constituted 26% of the combined demand for copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths in 2024.

The remaining 74% of demand for these critical minerals was attributed to various other applications, including construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defence, and electronics. This calculation pertains to consumption patterns observed in 2024.

Diverse Mineral Applications

The Oakland Institute's findings indicate that sectors outside of renewable power and electric vehicles were responsible for a significant majority of demand across several key minerals in 2024. This included 83% of nickel demand, 79% of magnet rare-earth demand, 71% of copper demand, and 68% of both cobalt and graphite demand.

Specific examples cited include construction, which accounted for 30% of global copper consumption, and stainless-steel production, which utilised approximately two-thirds of global nickel output. The analysis highlights the diverse industrial uses of these minerals beyond their role in the energy transition.

Mitigating Future Demand

The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 roadmap projects a substantial increase in the global fleet of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell cars and vans, from 11 million in 2020 to nearly 2 billion by 2050. Based on IEA mineral-demand data, the Oakland Institute calculated that electric vehicles (EVs) could consume 15.7 million metric tons of the combined total of copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths in 2050, representing 23% of the projected 68.2-million-ton total.

Research involving the University of California, Davis, explored pathways to reduce mineral demand for personal transportation. This study indicated that strategies such as lower vehicle ownership, the use of smaller batteries, and enhanced recycling rates could collectively reduce annual lithium demand in 2050 by up to 92% compared to scenarios with higher lithium intensity. The UC Davis model also suggested that adopting smaller EV batteries alone could decrease annual lithium demand for U.S. light-duty vehicles by as much as 42% in 2050, even if current levels of car dependence persist. The IEA estimates that optimising EV battery sizes, employing alternative chemistries, and expanding recycling efforts could collectively reduce global lithium demand by 25% by 2030 under its net-zero scenario.